A proposal for Portland

What if Portland voters had a citizen jury weigh in on every ballot measure?

Oregon pioneered the Citizens' Initiative Review—randomly selected voters who study ballot measures and share their findings. It works. Let's bring it to Portland city measures.

6–10%
Vote shift toward jury's position in controlled studies
25+ pts
Knowledge gain for panelists vs. general public
80%
Of voters find CIR statements useful across party lines

What is a Citizens' Initiative Review?

Oregon invented this process in 2010. Here's how it works.

🎲

Random Selection

20–24 registered voters are randomly selected and screened to form a demographically representative panel—like a jury, but for democracy.

📚

Deep Deliberation

Over 4–5 days, panelists hear from advocates on both sides, question expert witnesses, and discuss the measure's real-world implications.

📝

Key Findings

The panel produces a balanced "Citizens' Statement" with key findings—facts they believe voters should consider—plus their final vote.

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Voter Education

The statement goes in the official Voters' Pamphlet, reaching every household. Voters get trusted, peer-reviewed information—not just ads.

Proven at the State Level

Oregon's CIR has been studied extensively. The results are remarkable.

Voters exposed to CIR statements shift 6–10% toward the panel's position

In controlled experiments by researchers at Penn State, voters who read the Citizens' Statement were significantly more likely to align with the jury's verdict—not because they were told how to vote, but because they received better information.

25+
Point knowledge advantage
Panelists score dramatically higher on policy knowledge tests than the general public after deliberation.
80%
Cross-partisan trust
Democrats, Republicans, and independents all rate CIR statements as useful—rare in today's polarized environment.
7
State measures reviewed
Oregon CIR panels have evaluated measures on mandatory minimums, casinos, GMO labeling, corporate taxes, and more.
70→29%
Casino measure polling collapse
Measure 82 polled at 70% support before CIR. After the panel revealed out-of-state profit flows, it failed 71-29%.

The Portland Proposal

Bring citizen juries to city ballot measures—at no extra cost to petitioners.

Current System

~42,000
9% of registered voters
Total cost: $500–630K

With Citizen Jury

~25,000
~5% of registered voters
Signatures + $200K jury = $500–575K

Same total cost. Better outcomes.

Petitioners redirect money from signature-gathering busywork into actual voter education. Portland voters get a trusted, peer-reviewed analysis of every citizen initiative.

Why Reducing Signatures Doesn't Matter

And why a citizen jury is actually a better filter for ballot access.

Signatures don't test viability—they test fundraising.

The theory behind signature requirements is that they filter out frivolous measures by requiring demonstrated public support. But here's the problem: any issue can collect 9% of registered voters if the backers have enough money.

At $12–15 per signature, qualification is simply a function of budget. A wealthy interest group or out-of-state PAC can buy their way onto the ballot regardless of whether Portlanders actually support the idea. The signature requirement isn't a test of public will—it's a toll booth.

Signatures are all "yes" votes. There's no "no" option.

When a circulator asks "Will you sign this petition?", the only possible outcome is support or indifference. There's no mechanism for opposition. Someone who thinks a measure is a terrible idea simply doesn't sign—their view is invisible.

This means signatures can never answer the question that actually matters: "Is this thing likely enough to pass that it's worth putting before voters?"

A citizen jury verdict is a yes-vs-no outcome.

When 20+ randomly selected Portlanders spend four days studying a measure and then vote 17-7 against it, that's meaningful signal. It's not perfect prediction—sometimes juries and voters disagree—but it's informed signal from a representative sample.

More importantly, when a jury votes against a measure, voters hear about it. The CIR statement goes to every household. That 6–10% opinion shift means bad measures are more likely to fail.

Filter Mechanism Signature Requirement Citizen Jury
Tests actual support? No—only tests funding Yes—jury deliberates and votes
Allows opposition voice? No—signatures are only "yes" Yes—jury hears both sides
Demographically representative? No—skews to those approached Yes—random stratified sample
Informed decision? No—30-second pitch Yes—4-5 days of study
Affects election outcome? No—just gate to ballot Yes—6-10% opinion shift

The citizen jury is a better filter—and it doesn't block ballot access.

We're not proposing that juries decide what reaches the ballot. The measure still goes to voters. But the jury's verdict travels with it—educating voters and creating meaningful consequences for measures that can't survive informed scrutiny.

A measure that a jury of peers rejects 18-6 after careful study faces a 6–10% headwind with voters. That's a real filter. And unlike signatures, it's a filter based on merit, not money.

How Portland Could Make This Happen

The path to citizen juries for city measures.

1

City Charter Amendment or Ordinance

Portland could adopt this through a citizen initiative or City Council action. The charter already governs initiative signature requirements (currently 9% of registered voters)—this would modify that threshold and add the CIR funding requirement.

2

Agreement with Multnomah County

Portland already has MOUs with Multnomah County for election administration (they partnered on RCV implementation). A similar agreement could ensure CIR statements appear in the county voters' pamphlet alongside city measures.

3

Panel Administration

Oregon's existing CIR Commission has deep expertise in running these panels. Portland could contract with them or establish a city-level process using the same proven methodology.

4

Optional or Mandatory?

The cleanest design: petitioners who want the reduced signature threshold (5%) must fund the CIR panel. Those who prefer the traditional path (9%) can skip it. This preserves choice while creating strong incentives for participation.

Portland can lead on democratic innovation—again.

We pioneered ranked-choice voting for city elections. We can pioneer citizen juries for city measures. Let's build democracy infrastructure that helps voters make informed decisions.

Research & Sources